Overview
- Trump canceled planned envoy travel to Pakistan on Saturday, freezing the Islamabad channel and triggering sharp drops in near‑term peace odds on prediction markets.
- Iran’s president said Tehran will not negotiate under pressure or a U.S. blockade, and a senior lawmaker rejected outside control of the Strait of Hormuz and any long halt to uranium enrichment.
- The White House has shifted to a harder line that includes a naval blockade and the freezing of Iranian‑linked crypto assets, signaling less room for quick concessions.
- Event markets now price April 30 peace or nuclear agreements in the low single digits after a weeklong slide from roughly 60%, though thin liquidity means small trades can still swing quoted odds.
- Energy fallout is building as the Strait of Hormuz carries about a fifth of seaborne oil, with officials warning of higher fuel and travel costs even as crude prices have not surged to record levels.