USDA Data Day Sets Tone for Grains as Cotton Acres Top Forecasts

Overview

• USDA’s Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks, released Tuesday, showed cotton intentions at 9.64 million acres as corn futures slipped, soybeans edged higher and wheat traded mixed.
• Cotton acreage topped trader estimates by 409,000 acres and came in 357,000 above last year, and futures pulled back from early gains as traders weighed the prospect of larger supply.
• Analyst surveys ahead of the release pointed to fewer corn acres near 94.37 million and more soybean acres near 85.55 million, with March 1 stocks for corn, soybeans and wheat expected above last year.
• Policy and demand signals framed the setup as EPA finalized 2026 biofuel blending targets and allowed wider spring sales of E15 gasoline, while soybean export commitments ran 18% below last year and corn shipments stayed comparatively firm.
• Fund positioning added to volatility into the reports as CFTC data showed active shifts in managed‑money bets across grains, and a stronger dollar and broader risk worries cooled follow‑through buying.