Overview
- USDA’s monthly WASDE released on Friday cut U.S. 2025/26 corn stocks by about 125 million bushels and trimmed new‑crop corn carryout by roughly 170 million bushels, narrowing near‑term corn balances.
- CFTC Commitment of Traders data show managed money flipped to a net long in corn and added heavily to soybean longs, with corn rising by 58,868 contracts and soybean net longs increasing by 37,479 contracts during the week ending July 7.
- Fresh demand signals tightened fundamentals as USDA export inspections reported strong weekly corn shipments and marketing‑year corn exports running about 24.9% ahead of last year, while a private sale of 136,000 metric tons of soybeans to China was reported.
- NOAA’s 7‑day precipitation forecast keeps much of the Western Corn Belt very dry, raising trader focus on the July–August yield window and supporting front‑month contract gains.
- The protein complex is diverging: NOPA’s June soybean crush came in larger than expected at 214.34 million bushels, tightening soy processing stocks, while live cattle cash and futures showed notable weakness with lower reported cash trade and steady slaughter, a dynamic that could pressure farm income for livestock producers.