Overview
- Axios and multiple outlets report the Trump administration has discussed special‑forces options and a possible seizure of Kharg Island, which has so far not been targeted.
- Kharg handles roughly 90% of Iran’s crude exports and has an estimated loading capacity near 7 million barrels per day, making it a single‑point vulnerability for Tehran.
- JP Morgan warns a direct strike or seizure would stall most exports, could cut output roughly in half, and would likely prompt Iranian retaliation against regional energy or shipping.
- Analysts say disabling or holding the terminal would probably require ground forces and could expose any occupying force to sustained drone and missile attacks.
- Oil prices spiked on Monday, with reports citing Brent trading as high as $119, as banks and market watchers flagged the risk that action at Kharg could intensify the ongoing oil shock; Kpler estimates about 18 million barrels are currently stored on the island against roughly 30 million barrels of capacity.