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US Weekly Jobless Claims Fall to 187,000, Underscoring Labor Market Strength

A tighter labor market raises inflation risk, prompting markets to expect the Fed to pause at its next meeting.

Overview

  • The Labor Department reported that initial state jobless claims fell by 22,000 to a seasonally adjusted 187,000 for the most recent week, a larger drop than economists had forecast.
  • The number of people receiving ongoing unemployment benefits declined to 1.796 million in the latest available week, a sign of limited layoffs and steady hiring.
  • The unemployment rate unexpectedly dipped to 4.2% in June largely because the labor force shrank rather than because of a sudden surge in hiring.
  • Markets and Fed watchers view the weekly drop as reinforcing a policy case to hold rates at next week’s meeting while leaving the door open for at least one quarter-point hike later in the year.
  • These weekly figures cover the survey week for the July jobs report due in about two weeks and could influence that broader monthly employment read that helps determine future monetary policy.