Overview
- The US Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control issued a 60-day general license in mid‑June that permits production, delivery, sale and related services for Iranian oil through August 21, 2026.
- Sinopec and PetroChina are formally reassessing Iranian purchases but have not confirmed any orders and remain cautious as they review compliance systems and financing options.
- Tanker trackers show a jump in Iranian loadings between June 19 and June 24 to about 1.6 million barrels per day, yet independent Chinese 'teapot' refiners continue to be the main buyers.
- Analysts and industry sources say practical barriers — the need for steep discounts, limited banks willing to clear payments, insurance and shipping constraints, and weak domestic fuel demand — make a rapid, large-scale return by state majors unlikely.
- Markets will watch whether state refiners place orders before the August 21 expiry and whether the waiver is extended, because confirmed state purchases or a reversal of the license could drive short-term shifts in flows, refinery supply and downstream fuel availability.