Overview
- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent pledged measures he called “never seen” and President Trump repeated the vow on Friday, signalling an imminent escalation of economic pressure on Iran.
- The administration is building on an existing naval blockade and thousands of sanctions that have already hit Iran’s shadow oil fleet, shipping insurers and digital exchanges.
- China is the central constraint because it buys the vast majority of Iran’s exported oil, much of it processed by smaller independent “teapot” refineries that are harder for the U.S. to deter.
- Officials are weighing stepped-up secondary sanctions, tighter curbs on exchange houses and shadow shipping, asset freezes or seizures, tariffs or even a land-route squeeze, but each option carries legal, diplomatic or market risks.
- Iran has blunt tools to evade pressure—overland routes, informal money networks and crypto—and U.S. planners must also reckon with possible Chinese retaliation, higher global oil prices and humanitarian costs.