Overview
- The U.S. has announced plans to withdraw about 5,000 service members from Germany on a six-to-twelve month timetable and the plan remains in place.
- Researchers at ZEW and the University of Cologne estimate the pullback would lead to roughly 2,650 full-time job losses in the affected regions and nearby areas.
- More than 60 percent of the projected job losses come from lost purchasing power and reduced demand for local goods and services rather than only direct civilian layoffs on bases.
- The study warns the effects would be long-lasting with lower municipal revenues, especially from business taxes, and reduced employment prospects and lower lifetime earnings for displaced civilian workers.
- The findings increase pressure on German political leaders and municipalities to identify mitigation steps and federal support while experts note the projections depend on modelling assumptions about base operations and local responses.