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U.S. Trade Gap Hits Five-Year Low as Tariff Receipts Help Cut November Shortfall

Economists caution the September improvement reflects a gold-driven surge tied to shutdown-delayed reporting.

A bronze seal for the Department of the Treasury is shown at the U.S. Treasury building in Washington, U.S., January 20, 2023. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque/File Photo
A drone view shows shipping containers at the Port of Montreal in Montreal, Quebec, Canada April 14, 2025. REUTERS/Carlos Osorio
A drone view shows shipping containers at the Port of Montreal in Montreal, Quebec, Canada April 14, 2025. REUTERS/Carlos Osorio
A cargo ship full of shipping containers departs the port of Oakland at the San Francisco Bay, California, U.S., August 4, 2025. REUTERS/Carlos Barria/File Photo

Overview

  • Commerce Department data show the September trade deficit narrowed 10.9% to $52.8 billion, the smallest since mid-2020, with exports up 3.0% and imports up 0.6%.
  • The report was released late after a 43-day government shutdown, and recent tariff changes have produced sharp month-to-month swings in trade flows.
  • Pantheon Macroeconomics’ Oliver Allen said the narrowing was largely driven by a spike in nonmonetary gold exports and warned the effect may reverse, noting limited evidence of broad import substitution.
  • Treasury reported a $173 billion November budget deficit, smaller than a year earlier, with monthly receipts at a record for November and customs duties contributing $30.76 billion.
  • Statistics Canada said Canada recorded a C$153 million September surplus as exports rebounded and imports fell, with gains linked to unwrought gold and aircraft and a larger surplus with the United States.