Overview
- The INEGI data released Wednesday show Mexico shipped about 1.28 million light vehicles to the United States in the first half of 2026, a 3.6% drop from a year earlier while exports to Canada rose about 18%.
- The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative says Section 232 tariffs imposed in 2025 helped cut the U.S. automotive trade deficit with Mexico by roughly $6.6 billion between 2024 and 2025, with the tariff applied at a nominal 25% and an effective rate of about 13–15% for many Mexican shipments.
- Several individual models recorded extreme declines to the U.S., including zero reported U.S. exports for Kia’s Tucson, Mazda 3 Sedan, and Nissan’s QX50 and QX55, and fully electric models built in Mexico saw steep falls: GM’s Blazer EV and Equinox EV dropped about 82% and 86% and Ford’s Mustang Mach‑E fell about 59%.
- Automakers are rerouting volumes and adjusting production: Ford cut the share of Mexican exports going to the U.S. from roughly 90% to 70% translating to about 60,000 fewer U.S. shipments, and some manufacturers are considering or shifting assembly for models such as the Toyota Tacoma to U.S. plants.
- The 75% regional content threshold in T‑MEC, fully in force since July 2023, is under closer USTR scrutiny and could lead to tighter origin enforcement, more parts reshoring, and changes to investment and jobs across U.S., Mexican and Canadian auto supply chains.