Overview
- CNI, which published its analysis on Monday, June 15, estimates the USTR proposals would directly affect 35.2% of Brazil’s 2024 exports to the U.S. and that share rises to 54.1% when existing U.S. sectoral tariffs are counted.
- The USTR recommended a 25% additional tariff in a Brazil-specific Section 301 probe and a 12.5% surcharge in a broader forced-labor investigation, which can overlap to raise some product rates to 37.5%.
- Lists published by the USTR exempt many tariff codes but still leave major items exposed, with pig iron, cane sugar, undenatured ethanol and certain wood products flagged for the highest combined rates.
- CNI says the measures would raise costs, cut competitiveness and create investment uncertainty, and it urged technical dialogue with U.S. authorities before any measures are finalized.
- Public consultations and written submissions are open and Washington hearings are scheduled for July 6–7, after which the White House will decide whether to adopt the recommended tariffs, a move that could reshape trade and supply chains between the two countries.