Overview
- U.S. forces struck Iranian military targets after an American Apache helicopter was downed, and those strikes triggered oil price gains on Wednesday following earlier intraday falls.
- The U.S. Energy Information Administration warns OECD oil inventories are drawing down to the lowest levels since at least 2003 and projects Brent will average about $105 a barrel in June and July if flows do not normalize.
- Prices have swung sharply this week from multi‑week lows to rebounds, leaving Brent and WTI trading in the high‑$80s to low‑$90s as traders alternate between ceasefire hopes and renewed hostilities.
- U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright says ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is rising but that full normalisation of flows and restarted Gulf exports could take many months, so lost barrels will take weeks to months to return to markets.
- Governments and firms have drawn down reserves, leaving the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve and commercial stocks materially lower and increasing the risk of rapid price spikes and tighter fuel supplies if disruptions persist.