Overview
- China’s expanded export regime now covers more rare earth elements, processing equipment, and technology transfers, with key measures set to take effect on November 8 and extraterritorial magnet rules on December 1.
- President Donald Trump signed frameworks with Japan and several Southeast Asian countries to co-invest, stockpile, and map critical minerals, including a U.S.–Japan plan to fast-track financing and permitting for selected projects.
- Malaysia affirmed it will keep its ban on exporting raw rare earths despite a new U.S. memorandum, saying it seeks investment and technology for domestic processing rather than shipping unprocessed materials.
- Goldman Sachs estimates it could take about a decade for the West to challenge China’s dominance, citing Beijing’s roughly 92% share of refining and about 98% of magnet production.
- Markets are repricing risk ahead of the rules’ enforcement as MP Materials’ shares fell sharply this week, reflecting uncertainty over prices and profitability for non‑Chinese producers.