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U.S. Strikes in Southern Iran Put Fragile Ceasefire Under Pressure and Lift Oil Prices

The attacks risk widening Gulf tension by pushing oil toward $100 a barrel and strengthening calls for central banks to raise rates.

L'atrium central de la Bourse de Londres le 28 avril 2026.
L'ancien siège de la Bourse de Paris, le palais Brongniart, à Paris le 24 août 2015
Un opérateur à la Bourse de New York le 27 mai 2026
A l'entrée du siège de l'opérateur boursier Euronext, dans le quartier d'affaires de La Défense, près de Paris, le 25 août 2015

Overview

  • U.S. forces struck missile sites in southern Iran and shot down drones this week, and Iran responded with retaliatory strikes while accusing Washington of violating the ceasefire that began on April 8.
  • Brent crude climbed back toward the high‑$90s and near $100 a barrel as traders re‑priced the risk that Hormuz shipping could be disrupted, lifting inflation expectations in Europe.
  • Equity markets remain supported by a powerful tech and semiconductor rally that produced record valuations for some firms, but recent sessions showed profit‑taking and sector rotation.
  • Rising oil and higher inflation expectations pushed government bond yields up and reinforced market bets — echoed by ECB official Isabel Schnabel — that the European Central Bank will likely raise rates in June.
  • The ceasefire’s fragility and conflicting public statements about a proposed U.S.‑Iran protocol are keeping investors cautious and raise the chance of further market swings that would hit consumers through higher fuel and borrowing costs.