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U.S. Soldier Charged With Using Classified Maduro Raid Info to Win $409,000 on Polymarket

The case tests how regulators will police prediction markets built on real-world events.

Overview

  • Federal prosecutors in New York unsealed charges Thursday, alleging the 38-year-old used non-public details of the U.S. operation to capture Nicolás Maduro to place bets on Polymarket and net about $409,000 from roughly $33,000 staked.
  • The indictment says he helped plan and carry out the January 3 seizure of Maduro, opened a Polymarket account in late December, and placed about 13 wagers predicting Maduro’s ouster and U.S. forces operating in Venezuela.
  • Prosecutors say he tried to hide the proceeds by routing them through an overseas cryptocurrency wallet and asking Polymarket to close his account to conceal his identity.
  • He faces charges including theft of non-public government information, commodities fraud, wire fraud, and an unlawful monetary transaction, which could mean decades in prison if he is convicted.
  • Polymarket says it flagged the account to the Justice Department and cooperated, while the CFTC filed a civil case as prediction markets draw sharper scrutiny after other well-timed, high-dollar bets tied to U.S.–Iran tensions.