Overview
- Washington is negotiating with Beijing for long-term export licenses for rare-earth magnets and is offering to extend waivers on the U.S. ban on Chinese consumer drones to keep supplies flowing.
- Heavy use of missiles and interceptors in the Iran conflict has increased demand for components that depend on rare-earth elements used in guidance, propulsion and radar systems.
- China controls the separation step that turns ore into usable elements, with the IEA estimating a 91 percent global share, and it has tightened and later eased exports to exert leverage.
- The U.S. is trying to buy time by funding domestic capacity and allies, including government stakes in MP Materials and USA Rare Earth, a 10‑year price floor for processed minerals, and early magnet output from startups like Vulcan Elements and eVAC.
- Separation at Mountain Pass is set to start soon and deals with producers in Australia, the DRC, Rwanda and Thailand are underway, yet analysts say rebuilding stockpiles will take years and could strain readiness for other missions such as defending Taiwan.