Overview
- The Commerce Department’s advance retail report released June 17 showed nominal retail receipts rose 0.9% in May to $763.7 billion and were up 6.9% year over year.
- Gas station receipts were a major driver, rising 3.4% month on month and about 26.5% year on year, which inflated the headline number through higher pump prices.
- The retail 'control group' that excludes autos, gasoline, building materials and food services increased 0.7%, signaling underlying demand that feeds directly into GDP estimates.
- Some analyses adjusting for inflation found real retail volumes roughly flat to down about 0.2% in May, and economists warned that larger tax refunds and stock gains have temporarily propped up spending.
- Markets and policymakers see the mixed report as strengthening the case against immediate rate cuts for incoming Fed chair Kevin Warsh while energy geopolitics and fading refund cushions will determine momentum in coming months.