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U.S. Q4 2025 Growth Cut to 0.7% in BEA Revision, Full-Year Slows to 2.1%

BEA points to weaker trade, softer consumer outlays, plus a one‑point drag from the 43‑day shutdown.

Overview

  • - Exports, consumption, government spending, and investment were all revised down, with exports the largest downgrade and now shown falling 3.3% in Q4.
  • - A key gauge of underlying domestic demand—real final sales to private domestic purchasers—was marked down to 1.9% from 2.4%.
  • - Inflation in the BEA report stayed elevated, with PCE running at a 2.9% annual rate and core PCE at 2.7% for Q4, while January core PCE rose 0.4% month over month.
  • - Labor indicators show strain, including 92,000 job cuts last month and historically weak hiring in 2025, aligning with softer consumer spending.
  • - Rising oil prices since late‑February military action against Iran add near‑term risks to growth and inflation, as the final Q4 estimate approaches on April 9.