Overview
- G7 talks this week have shown growing resistance to the U.S. plan to use price supports to boost critical‑minerals production, with diplomats warning about cost and governance risks.
- The U.S. draft relies on DARPA's OPEN AI metals model to set price floors and adjustable tariffs, a mechanism that European officials have privately opposed for handing Washington outsized control.
- More than 230 formal submissions to the U.S. Trade Representative reveal a divided industry, with many miners and trade groups urging tax credits and incentives instead of formal price‑setting.
- Facing slow multilateral progress, U.S. negotiators are shifting toward fast bilateral agreements with Japan and the EU to cover roughly five to ten niche minerals such as heavy rare earths, antimony, graphite and tungsten before the end of June.
- Market structure widens the stakes because many critical minerals trade over the counter with low transparency and follow Chinese prices, and a 2026 UNCTAD report documents nearly 100 producer export measures since 2020 that are already reshaping supply chains.