Overview
- Chinese refiners have been largely cut off from Venezuelan crude in the past week and traders report rising inquiries for Canadian heavy grades.
- Recent U.S. maneuvers and an intensifying oil blockade have curtailed sanctioned Venezuelan flows that relied on yuan payments and a “dark fleet” of tankers.
- Canadian heavy-sour barrels currently cost about $8 to $9 per barrel more than Venezuela’s Merey, a premium that could deter some processors.
- Roughly 22 million barrels of Venezuelan oil are floating near Malaysia and China, a short-term buffer estimated to cover demand for up to two months.
- Logistics favor Canadian supply after the Trans Mountain expansion, with voyages to Qingdao of about 17 days versus roughly 57 days from Venezuela, and China bought just under 40% of Canada’s seaborne crude in 2025.