U.S. Natural Gas Rebounds on Europe’s Iran-Driven Spike as Warm Forecasts Cap Gains

Overview

• April Nymex natural gas settled up 1.06% on Wednesday, recovering from a 1.5-week low after European prices jumped about 6% to a one-week high.
• The European rally followed Iranian threats to hit energy infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE, adding to the March 2 shutdown of Qatar’s Ras Laffan and the recent drone strike that halted the UAE’s Shah field.
• U.S. gains were restrained as the Commodity Weather Group projected well-above-average temperatures across the western half of the country over the next two weeks, dampening heating demand.
• Traders expect an EIA storage build of roughly 39 bcf for the week ended March 13 versus a typical five-year seasonal draw, after last week’s smaller-than-expected 38 bcf withdrawal left inventories 8.8% above year-ago levels.
• Supply remains robust with the EIA lifting its 2026 dry-gas output forecast to 109.97 bcf per day and Baker Hughes counting 133 active U.S. gas rigs near a 2.5-year high, while European storage sat near 29% of capacity.