Overview
- The Council on Criminal Justice analysis of 35–40 cities reports the largest one-year homicide drop on record and suggests 2025 could mark the lowest U.S. homicide rate since 1900.
- Eleven of 13 tracked offenses declined in 2025, including a 23% drop in robbery and 22% in gun assaults, while drug crimes rose and sexual assaults were unchanged.
- Homicides fell in 31 of 35 reporting cities, with Denver down 41% and Washington, D.C., and Omaha each down 40%, while Little Rock rose 16% and small increases were noted in Fort Worth and Milwaukee.
- If similar declines appear in forthcoming FBI figures, researchers estimate the national homicide rate will be near 4.0 per 100,000 people in 2025.
- Experts and CCJ leaders say multiple overlapping social, policy, and structural factors may be influencing the trend, and they note the study’s city sample and reporting gaps limit broad conclusions.