Overview
- Mortgage Bankers Association data for the week ended July 31 show the average 30‑year contract rate climbed to 6.81%, the highest in just over a year.
- Mortgage application volume weakened with total applications down 2.9% week‑over‑week, purchase apps down about 4%, and refinance activity falling and running roughly 9% below the same week last year.
- Markets traced the move to the Iran conflict pushing oil and inflation expectations higher, which lifted 10‑year Treasury yields to the mid‑4% range and widened mortgage spreads to about 2%, raising lender pricing.
- Different measures report slightly different averages — Freddie Mac at about 6.66%, Bankrate about 6.78%, and Zillow/U.S. News near 6.9% — because surveys use distinct samples and methods for advertised offers versus contract rates.
- Higher rates are reducing affordability, creating seller 'lock‑in' for homeowners with low rates, and are likely to remain elevated above roughly 6% unless inflation and long‑term Treasury yields fall decisively.