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20h ago

U.S. Jobless Claims Hold Near Historic Lows as Hiring Stalls

Persistent low layoffs alongside weak hiring and a wider goods trade deficit leave the Federal Reserve weighing whether to keep interest rates tight.

FILE - A job seeker waits to talk to a recruiter at a job fair Aug. 28, 2025, in Sunrise, Fla. (AP Photo/Marta Lavandier, File)
A "we're hiring" sign is displayed on the door of a local business, after U.S. employment growth slowed more than expected in July, in Encinitas, California, U.S. August 1, 2025. REUTERS/Mike Blake

Overview

  • Initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell to a seasonally adjusted 203,000 for the week ended Aug. 22, keeping weekly filings in a year‑long, unusually low range.
  • The number receiving continued benefits declined to 1.778 million for the week ended Aug. 15 and the unemployment rate sits around 4.1%, signals that layoffs remain rare even as job openings slow.
  • Monthly hiring has been soft this year, with employers averaging about 61,000 jobs a month so far and forecasters expecting roughly 65,000 payroll gains for August when the Labor Department releases that report.
  • The U.S. goods trade deficit widened to $118.8 billion in July as exports fell and imports rose, adding pressure to economic growth and inflation readings.
  • If this 'no hire, no fire' pattern holds, policymakers may keep a tight focus on containing inflation rather than easing policy, and job seekers can expect tougher competition for fewer openings.