Overview
- On Monday the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control published a 60‑day General License that authorizes Iranian crude, petroleum and petrochemical sales through August 21.
- Ship‑tracking firms and maritime reports show crossings through the Strait of Hormuz have risen sharply and several previously stranded supertankers have begun moving, easing the wartime choke on Gulf flows.
- Global crude benchmarks dropped to their lowest levels since before the Iran war as traders priced in renewed Iranian barrels and a smaller war premium, pressuring regional cash markets and spreads.
- President Donald Trump instructed the Department of Justice to examine whether fuel retailers and oil companies have passed lower crude costs to drivers, and regulators are reported to be probing several suspicious trades from the conflict period.
- Operational hurdles and lingering uncertainties remain: mine clearance, insurer and shipowner confidence, a backlog of vessels, low strategic inventories and disputed negotiation claims mean full normalization could take weeks to months and will shape inflation, Fed expectations and OPEC+ responses.