Overview
- Iran was hit by confirmed U.S.-Israeli strikes and launched retaliatory missiles toward Israel, setting up a volatile market open when trading resumes after Brent closed near $72.50.
- Several oil majors and top trading houses have suspended some crude and fuel movements through the Strait of Hormuz, and tanker traffic is diverting as freight and insurance risks climb.
- Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said passage through parts of Hormuz is unsafe and described the lane as effectively closed, though enforcement is unclear as U.S. maritime authorities urged commercial ships to steer clear.
- Iran’s main export hub at Kharg Island was the site of a reported explosion with no confirmed damage; analysts note Iran exports roughly 1.3–1.9 million barrels per day, much of it to China via shadow shipping.
- OPEC+ meets Sunday and may weigh output changes, while analysts warn scenarios range from a modest price bump to triple-digit oil if flows are disrupted; the U.S. SPR holds about 415 million barrels but can only offset a limited, short-lived shock.