Overview
- The 60-day U.S.-Iran truce expired on Monday, after which a senior Iranian official said Tehran would shift to a "fully offensive" posture and President Trump declined to extend the deal while warning Oman.
- Brent crude climbed above $90 a barrel and settled around $91 as traders priced the risk of sustained Gulf shipping disruption, helping push oil to a third day of gains.
- U.S. Treasury long-term yields jumped to multi-year highs, with the 10-year near 4.72% and the 30-year around 5.31%, reflecting markets’ repricing of future inflation and borrowing costs.
- Reports surfaced of vessels being attacked or seized in the Strait of Hormuz and UKMTO logged a ship struck, tightening physical flows and sending diesel refining margins and some freight costs sharply higher.
- Markets now face harder policy choices because higher energy prices raise inflation risk, so investors are watching Wednesday’s FOMC minutes and next week’s Jackson Hole speeches for guidance on central-bank moves.