Overview
- Reports that Iran paused negotiations and threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz coincided with roughly a 7% jump in Brent and U.S. crude prices, a shock that markets registered on Monday.
- Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi warned that only days to about a week remain to secure an agreement before oil-driven price rises materially raise the odds of a U.S. recession.
- The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve recently fell to about 365 million barrels, the lowest level in roughly two years, reducing the government’s buffer against a sustained supply disruption.
- Energy researcher HFI said global operational oil stocks could reach critical minima by the end of June if the strait stays closed, narrowing options for policymakers and traders.
- President Trump posted that talks are continuing at a rapid pace, a claim that conflicts with other reports of stalled negotiations and leaves a disputed picture of whether a deal can be reached in time.