Overview
- A renewed series of strikes between U.S. and Iranian forces has been described as the most substantial exchange since July and has pushed Brent toward about $95 a barrel and WTI near $91.
- Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz dropped sharply, with preliminary data showing roughly four commodity vessels transited on a recent day versus a ten‑day average near 13, and reports that some tankers were disabled after striking sea mines.
- U.S. market fundamentals added support as EIA data showed an unexpected crude draw of roughly 4.5 million barrels, while Energy Secretary Chris Wright said about 17 million barrels moved through Hormuz on one recent day.
- Traders logged strong intraday swings and technical resistance around late‑July levels, prediction markets still put low odds on a near‑term record high, and President Trump signaled the campaign would not continue for long.
- Near‑term direction will hinge on whether military exchanges ease, OPEC+ keeps output policy steady for October as expected, and alternative flows such as increased Iraqi exports and ship‑to‑ship transfers offset Hormuz disruption.