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U.S.-Iran Interim Memorandum Lowers Oil Risk as Gas Drops Below $4

Markets have priced in reduced shipping risk after the deal, yet low inventories and mine, insurance and repair hurdles mean a full return to normal oil flows will take weeks to months.

Overview

  • The United States and Iran signed a 14-point interim memorandum on Wednesday that halts fighting and opens a 60-day window for negotiations toward a broader agreement.
  • Global crude benchmarks fell into the high‑$70s per barrel and the U.S. national average gasoline price slipped to about $3.999 per gallon as traders priced lower short-term supply risk.
  • U.S. stockpiles remain tight with weekly EIA crude inventories at a 7.5-month low and Cushing storage at an 11-year low, leaving limited buffers if flows do not fully resume.
  • At least a dozen major energy vessels, including three Saudi supertankers carrying roughly 6 million barrels, have begun transiting the Strait of Hormuz but analysts warn many shipowners remain cautious.
  • Consumers should expect gradual and uneven relief at the pump because refineries, contracts and inventories reflect earlier higher-cost crude, and repairs, mine clearance and insurance issues could delay full normalisation.