Overview
- The White House advanced an interim U.S.-Iran memorandum meant to halt fighting and reopen the Strait of Hormuz so Iran can resume commercial crude exports under a limited framework.
- Shipping data reported about eleven tankers carrying roughly 20 million barrels departing Iran’s Chabahar port, a sudden release of supply that market participants treated as fresh barrels entering the market.
- Global crude benchmarks dropped about 8–9 percent for the week as traders aggressively pared the geopolitical risk premium that built up during months of Gulf disruptions.
- Planned follow-up talks in Switzerland were postponed and Iranian public messaging about Hormuz was inconsistent, raising doubts about whether the truce will hold.
- Full normalization faces practical hurdles — mine clearance, insurance and shipowner confidence plus very low commercial stocks — while weak Chinese imports and other supply gains have cushioned prices for now.