Overview
- U.S. intelligence agencies, in their annual threat assessment released Wednesday, judge that Chinese leaders do not currently plan to invade Taiwan in 2027 and have no fixed timeline for unification.
- Beijing publicly ties unification to its 2049 “national rejuvenation” goal and has threatened force as an option, though the report says it prefers to avoid using force if possible.
- The assessment warns that a conflict would disrupt U.S. access to trade and critical technology, with broader consequences across global markets and tech supply chains.
- If the United States intervenes, the report says it would probably face significant but recoverable disruptions to its transportation sector from Chinese cyberattacks.
- The intelligence community cautions that a protracted war involving the United States would carry unprecedented economic costs for the U.S., China, and the global economy.