Overview
- Iran’s “breakout time” still stands at roughly nine to twelve months, the same window set after last summer’s joint U.S.-Israeli strikes.
- Breakout time means how long it would take to make enough bomb-grade fuel and build a usable device.
- The IAEA says it cannot verify about 440 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium, which it estimates could yield around ten bombs if further refined.
- Recent operations damaged known enrichment sites such as Natanz and Fordow but largely targeted conventional forces and Iran’s industrial base.
- Deep underground storage at the Isfahan complex limits the impact of airstrikes, prompting some U.S. officials to weigh high-risk ground missions, while a truce since April 7 has paused major fighting as Iran slows traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and pressures global oil supplies.