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U.S. Intelligence Report Says Lone-Offender Attacks Are the Most Likely Terror Threat to the Homeland

The assessment highlights online radicalization of youths linked to global conflicts as a key driver.

Overview

  • Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard released the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment and testified before the Senate Intelligence Committee.
  • The report identifies U.S.-based lone offenders or very small cells inspired by extremist content as the primary near-term risk.
  • Officials cite 2025 data: at least three Islamist attacks, at least 15 disrupted plotters, and roughly half with online contacts to Islamist terrorists.
  • ISIS and al-Qaeda retain intent to target the United States, though their external operational capacity has declined as affiliates expand in Africa.
  • Gabbard said tighter border enforcement has limited access, with only a handful of recent border encounters tied to terrorist groups.