Overview
- A classified National Intelligence Council assessment completed days before the Feb. 28 U.S.-Israel strikes judged that neither limited nor prolonged campaigns would yield a new Iranian government, even if top leaders were killed.
- Reporting says Iran’s clerical leadership has selected Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader after his father’s reported death, signaling continuity consistent with the assessment’s expectations.
- The Washington Post and The New York Times first detailed the assessment, with subsequent coverage by the Associated Press and WSBT corroborating key points from sources familiar with the document.
- The finding complicates administration messaging as Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth says the war is not aimed at regime change while President Donald Trump has expressed interest in removing Iran’s leadership.
- The Office of the Director of National Intelligence did not immediately comment on the report, and prior turbulence at the National Intelligence Council is noted as context for friction over intelligence and policy.