Overview
- New reporting reveals a classified July 2023 briefing where CIA Director William Burns and DNI Avril Haines told Tim Cook, Jensen Huang, Lisa Su and Cristiano Amon that China could move on Taiwan by 2027.
- Apple’s CEO reportedly told officials he slept “with one eye open” after the session, which Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo had requested out of frustration with slow industry action.
- Taiwan’s TSMC makes roughly 90% of the world’s most advanced semiconductors, and a confidential 2022 industry study projected an 11% drop in U.S. GDP if access were cut off, a risk Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called an “economic apocalypse.”
- Despite the warnings, companies were slow to shift orders because U.S.-made chips cost about 25% more, domestic fabs trail Taiwan’s most advanced nodes, and many U.S.-fabricated chips still require packaging steps in Taiwan.
- Apple has pledged $100 billion for U.S. manufacturing and TSMC is expanding Arizona fabs, with firms exploring domestic sourcing, yet capacity and sophistication gaps leave supply chains exposed during the 2027 risk window.