Overview
- Headline CPI increased 3.0% year over year in September with a 0.3% monthly gain, while core CPI held at 3.0% annually and eased to 0.2% on the month.
- Gasoline prices lifted the overall index even as shelter costs showed signs of cooling, producing a mixed inflation picture.
- The Labor Department published the report later than usual during a federal shutdown, and the White House warned the October CPI may not be released if the shutdown continues.
- Economist Eric Winograd of AllianceBernstein said inflation is not accelerating but also not returning to target, suggesting the Federal Reserve will lean cautious at its upcoming meeting.
- S&P Global’s composite PMI rose to 54.8 in October from 53.9, indicating expanding activity, while analysts noted tariff costs have been only partly passed through to consumers with risk of greater pass‑through if seen as permanent.