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U.S. Inflation Reaccelerates and Markets Price a Fed Rate Increase

Hot August CPI plus PPI readings driven by a jump in energy prices have prompted markets to price a likely 25‑basis‑point Federal Reserve move next week.

Overview

  • The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday that headline CPI rose 0.4% from July and 3.4% year‑over‑year while core CPI climbed 0.3% for the month and 2.4% annually.
  • The Bureau of Economic Analysis showed wholesale prices also rose 0.4% in August and 5.4% year‑over‑year, signaling upstream cost pressure that can feed into consumer prices.
  • Brent crude topped $100 per barrel and national pump and diesel prices surged, with diesel reaching record highs, which analysts say was the main driver of the August price gains.
  • Financial markets quickly repriced policy: futures now put roughly a 70–90% chance of a 25‑basis‑point Fed hike next week and the 10‑year Treasury yield pushed toward 5%, triggering volatile stock moves.
  • Policymakers face a choice between hiking to tighten demand further or waiting for clearer signs of durable disinflation with observers warning energy shocks can spill into broader goods and services costs.