Overview
- Industrial production, released Friday, rose 0.1% month over month for June 2026, a figure that narrowly missed economists’ flat forecast and effectively rounds to zero.
- The Fed’s industrial production index stands at 102.6 on the 2017 base, which corresponds to 1.7% year‑over‑year growth.
- Capacity utilization was 76.2%, about 3.2 percentage points below its long‑run average, which signals meaningful idle factory capacity and limited upward pressure on input prices.
- The recent prints mark a clear slowdown from April’s 0.9% jump to much softer 0.1% gains in both May and June, showing that the spring pickup has largely faded.
- The weak data strengthens the near‑term argument for Fed patience on rates, may support risk assets if the trend continues, and makes upcoming macro releases the key test for whether the cooling is persistent.