Overview
- Morgan Stanley’s modeling finds that under multiple long‑run rate paths affordability will not return to pre‑2022 peaks and that the median buyer now faces roughly $2,000 in monthly mortgage carrying costs, about double the load from five years ago.
- A large share of homeowners — about 70% with loans under 5% — are reluctant to sell because replacing those rates with current higher mortgages cuts turnover and shifts supply pressure onto new construction that is not arriving at affordable price points.
- The Bank of America Homebuyer Insights survey, released Tuesday, shows a sentiment shift with 53% of respondents now preferring buying to renting even as 58% cite high home prices and 47% cite elevated rates as the main barriers to purchase.
- A Best Interest Financial and Clever Real Estate report finds 95% of Americans planning to buy in the next five years face at least one obstacle today, with many unable to afford typical monthly payments or required down payments and first‑time buyers moving into cheaper zip codes.
- The practical effect will be a regionally split market where some buyers adapt by trading space or location while others stay renters, rent pressures persist, and national affordability only meaningfully improves if mortgage rates fall and materially more lower‑cost new homes are built.