Overview
- Tuesday's Case‑Shiller release showed the U.S. National Index up 1.1% year‑over‑year for May with the seasonally adjusted year‑over‑year change at 1.6%.
- After seasonal adjustment the national index fell about 0.05% month‑over‑month, signaling that some spring gains were driven by seasonal patterns rather than stronger fundamentals.
- Price trends remain highly uneven with Chicago leading at about +6.9% annual growth while Las Vegas, Seattle, Denver and Tampa posted notable year‑over‑year declines.
- The FHFA price index reported a stronger 2.2% year‑over‑year gain for its most recent period, reflecting differences in sampled mortgages and timing that can produce divergent headline rates.
- With May CPI near 4.2% and 30‑year mortgage rates around the mid‑6% range, real home prices have fallen for roughly a year and buyers face tighter affordability as inventories edge up and analyst forecasts are revised lower.