Overview
- The March Case‑Shiller report published May 26 shows the U.S. National Index rose just 0.7% year‑over‑year and the 20‑City composite fell 0.2% month‑to‑month after seasonal adjustment.
- More than half of the 20 major metro areas posted year‑over‑year price declines in March, signaling the cooling has broadened beyond the Sun Belt into large markets.
- The cycle is highly localized: Chicago led with a 6.1% annual gain while Seattle was weakest at ‑2.5%, creating an 8.6 percentage‑point gap between the top and bottom cities.
- Consumer inflation outpaced nominal house‑price gains in March, leaving U.S. home values down in real (inflation‑adjusted) terms for the tenth straight month.
- Mortgage rates have climbed to about 6.5%, squeezing buyer affordability and raising the risk of further price pressure even as the FHFA index showed a modest 0.1% March uptick that offers a different short‑term read.