Overview
- Fifty-seven percent of consumers expect the economy to weaken over the next year, marking the least optimistic holiday view Deloitte has recorded since it began tracking in 1997.
- Average planned holiday spend is $1,595, down 10% from 2024, with a projected 14% pullback on products and a 6% reduction on experiences.
- Younger shoppers are tightening most, with Gen Z planning a 34% cut and millennials down 13%, while Gen X is the only cohort expecting a small increase of 3%.
- Seventy-seven percent anticipate higher holiday prices and plan to stretch budgets through value tactics, including deal-hunting by 89%, trading down by 77%, and reusing or crafting gifts.
- Retailers are leaning into promotions as forecasts diverge, with Bain and Adobe projecting modest growth, PwC signaling restraint, and an NRF survey pointing to near-record per-person outlays.