Overview
- The Labor Department's JOLTS survey released Tuesday showed job openings fell to 7.359 million in June with hires rising by 96,000, and the largest single-month decline in openings came in healthcare and social assistance.
- ADP's private payroll report released Wednesday recorded a much weaker-than-expected gain of 44,000 jobs in July while pay for workers who switched jobs accelerated to about 7% year‑over‑year.
- Weekly unemployment claims and planned layoffs have stayed near multi-year lows, signaling that employers are cutting back on new postings without carrying out broad firings.
- Economists expect a modest official payroll gain for July and investors are parsing these mixed readings because softer hiring would lean toward easing policy while faster pay gains give the Fed a reason to hold rates higher.
- JOLTS measures job openings and turnover from employer surveys and ADP counts private payrolls from payroll records, so differences between the reports reflect their methods and timing and show the labor market is cooling unevenly across sectors and worker groups.