Overview
- Bureau of Labor Statistics data show food-at-home prices up 2.4% over the past year, including a 0.7% rise in December, the quickest monthly gain since October 2022.
- Grocery costs are nearly 26% higher than five years ago, reflecting several years of elevated prices that have compounded shoppers’ strain.
- Price changes are uneven: ground beef hit a record $6.69 per pound in December, coffee costs have climbed, while eggs and some dairy items have fallen over the past year.
- President Trump’s assertions that grocery prices are declining are contradicted by the latest official data and industry commentary.
- Policy and outlook factors include the November removal of a 40% tariff on Brazilian imports expected to ease coffee prices and a USDA forecast of roughly 2.3% grocery inflation in 2026, even as labor constraints and input costs keep pressure on shelves.