Overview
- Markets are cautious ahead of the NASS monthly Crop Production report due Wednesday, with analysts surveyed by Reuters expecting a roughly 11 million‑bushel cut to U.S. wheat and traders watching for any change that would feed into the Aug. 12 WASDE.
- Wheat showed sharp moves earlier in the week, rallying on Monday before easing on Tuesday, and reports that Ukraine and Russia held talks about Black Sea exports have left buyers unsure about near‑term global supply.
- Soybean futures fell on Tuesday as NOAA’s wetter seven‑day forecast for key Midwest growing states raised yield expectations, even as large private sales of soybeans to China were reported.
- Corn has been relatively range‑bound but is supported by very strong export inspections, with the week of Aug. 6 shipments of 1.74 MMT and marketing‑year exports now about 25% ahead of last year.
- Large managed‑money positions and recent CFTC shifts mean data or weather surprises can amplify price moves, which could affect farm income, export premiums and how buyers shift purchases between origins.