Overview
- The advance goods trade report shows the deficit rose to $132.6 billion as imports climbed $17.4 billion to $336.1 billion while exports rose $3.7 billion to $203.4 billion.
- Wholesale and retail inventories continued to increase but at a slower monthly pace, with wholesale up 0.7% month‑on‑month and 6.6% year‑on‑year and retail up 0.3% month‑on‑month and 4.8% year‑on‑year.
- Data point to stronger shipments of industrial supplies, including petroleum, and higher capital‑goods imports tied to AI infrastructure investment as important drivers of the import surge.
- Because imports are subtracted from output in the national accounts, the larger goods deficit can reduce measured GDP growth though the final impact depends on the full composition of trade and other demand components.
- Markets and policymakers are watching these advance, goods‑only figures for signs of persistent import‑led demand and for revisions that could change the near‑term outlook for growth and external financing.