Overview
- The U.S. Census Bureau's advance goods report showed the May goods deficit at $105.8 billion, larger than expectations and the biggest monthly gap since July 2025.
- Goods exports fell by $11.8 billion to $207.7 billion while goods imports rose by $10.9 billion to $313.4 billion, reversing the improvement seen in April.
- Because the advance report covers goods only and is used by GDP nowcasters, the May swing is expected to prompt downward revisions to Q2 growth trackers before the full FT-900 release.
- The decline in exports was broad-based, with pulls in industrial supplies and vehicles, while higher capital goods purchases helped push imports up.
- The May reversal follows a sharp narrowing of the cumulative goods deficit earlier in 2026 as last year's tariff-driven import front-loading unwound, highlighting continued month-to-month volatility in trade flows.