Overview
- Thursday’s BEA advance estimate showed real GDP rose at a 1.5% annualized rate in Q2, down from 2.1% in Q1.
- Household spending accelerated to a 3.2% annual pace and business fixed investment surged, driven in part by a rush to build AI data centers.
- Imports of computer parts and semiconductors jumped and widened the trade deficit, which Commerce Department data show spiked to about $77.6 billion in May and subtracted from headline GDP.
- Federal outlays fell partly because of Strategic Petroleum Reserve sales even as defense spending rose because of the war with Iran, reducing the government spending contribution to growth.
- Price indexes stayed elevated in Q2 with broad measures above target even as core PCE showed some easing, a mix that helped prompt the Fed to hold rates with several officials voting to raise them.