Overview
- Renewed U.S.–Iran hostilities, including U.S. strikes and a reimposed naval blockade around the Strait of Hormuz, have driven a new crude rally and raised a fresh supply risk premium.
- Global benchmarks rallied into the low‑to‑mid $80s per barrel this week, and traders on Kalshi now price more than a 90% chance that the U.S. national average will exceed $4 per gallon by month end.
- The U.S. national pump average stood about $3.86–$3.89 per gallon and analysts at GasBuddy say replacement‑cost moves already in the pipeline make $4 likely within days to weeks.
- Shortfalls in refining output, including Ukrainian strikes that cut Russian refining capacity, are tightening supplies of gasoline and diesel and putting diesel at risk of rising toward $5 per gallon.
- Consumers will see uneven effects because local retail pricing, regional supply flows and state pricing rules vary, and shrinking strategic releases mean higher fuel costs could ripple into freight and goods prices.